A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
