Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
